Guide
How to plan next year's ad budget across channels
To plan next year's ad budget across channels, start from this year's actual spend per channel — not last year's plan, which was often wrong — and build the new total from there. Split each channel's annual number by month using this year's real seasonality rather than a flat 1/12th, decide cadence (5-day vs. 7-day) and build the holiday calendar before January 1 so pacing starts correct on day one, and leave a deliberate few percent of planned room rather than budgeting to the exact dollar, so there is something real to reallocate at reconciliation instead of nothing.
Most annual ad budgets get planned the same way: take last year's number, add a percentage, and split it evenly across twelve months. It's fast, and it's wrong twice — once because last year's plan was rarely what actually happened, and again because a flat monthly split ignores every seasonal pattern the channel already showed you.
A better plan starts from the actuals you already have, not the plan you already missed. Here's the method.
The steps
- 1
Start from actuals, not last year's plan
Pull what each channel genuinely spent this year, not the number it was budgeted for in January. The gap between the two is exactly why planning from the plan compounds the same miss into next year.
- 2
Keep the budget call separate from the performance call
If a channel is getting more or less budget next year because of how it performed, that decision belongs to your performance tools, not this process — Ad Pacing Guru tracks budget and spend dollars, not ROAS or conversions. Once the "more" or "less" call is made elsewhere, this step is just translating it into a specific per-channel, per-month number.
- 3
Set the annual total per channel first
Decide each channel's full-year number before splitting it by month. Planning month-by-month first tends to produce twelve small decisions that don't add up to a total anyone actually chose on purpose.
- 4
Split by month using this year's real seasonality
Look at which months actually ran hot or quiet this year, per channel, and weight next year's monthly split accordingly instead of dividing the annual total by twelve. A channel that genuinely spends 40% more in Q4 shouldn't get the same monthly number as every other month.
- 5
Build the holiday calendar before January 1
Decide which dates will spike or lull each channel's spend (see the separate guide on holiday-aware pacing) as part of the planning process itself, not as a scramble the week before Black Friday arrives.
- 6
Decide cadence per channel now
Confirm which channels run 5-day vs. 7-day before the year starts, so January 1's daily floor is calculated correctly from day one instead of getting corrected mid-quarter once someone notices the math is off.
- 7
Leave planned room, don't plan to the exact dollar
A plan that assumes every channel lands at exactly 100% of budget has nothing to work with at reconciliation. A deliberate few percent of planned cushion per channel gives you real surplus to roll forward or reallocate, instead of a plan with no slack anywhere in it.
- 8
Re-run the plan quarterly
An annual plan set once in December is stale by the second quarter. Revisit each channel's plan against its actual pace every quarter and adjust the remaining months — the annual number is a starting point, not a number carved in stone on January 1st.
Frequently asked questions
How do you plan next year's ad budget across multiple channels?
Start from this year's actual spend per channel, set each channel's annual total first, split it by month using this year's real seasonality rather than a flat 1/12th, and build the holiday calendar and channel cadence into the plan before the year starts.
Should next year's budget be based on last year's plan or last year's actuals?
Actuals. The plan from a year ago was often wrong by the time the year played out — basing next year's number on what actually happened avoids compounding the same miss forward.
Should annual budget planning account for performance (ROAS, conversions)?
The decision to grow or shrink a channel's budget based on performance belongs to your performance tools, not a budget-pacing tool. Once that call is made, annual planning is about translating it into a specific per-channel, per-month number — not re-making the performance decision itself.
Should an annual ad budget be split evenly across all twelve months?
Only if the channel genuinely spends evenly, which most don't. Splitting by this year's real seasonality — which months actually ran hot or quiet per channel — produces a far more usable monthly plan than dividing the annual total by twelve.
How often should an annual ad budget plan be revisited?
Quarterly, at minimum. A plan set once in December and never revisited is already behind actual pacing by the time the second quarter closes — treat the annual number as a starting point that gets checked against reality four times a year, not a one-time exercise.
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